Construction of offshore wind farm project (image from the internet)
Under the “dual carbon” goal, China’s wind power market has achieved unprecedented tremendous development. Correspondingly, the wind power aftermarket services, including wind power operation and maintenance, technological upgrading, and replacing small with large, will also usher in a new round of growth. According to CWEA (China Wind Energy Association) data, the total installed capacity of wind power in China at the end of 2012 was 75.32 million kilowatts, with 53764 units installed. This means that by the end of 2022, there will be over 50000 wind turbines operating for 10 years or more, which will generate a massive demand for upgrading and replacement, and the market development will be unlimited.
The wind power aftermarket may exceed 65 billion yuan by 2025
Since entering the 14th Five Year Plan period, there has been a clear demand for high-quality development of wind power. In August 2021, the Development and Reform Commission of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region issued a notice on carrying out the pilot program of “replacing small with large” renovation of old wind farms in Ningxia. Subsequently, the National Energy Administration solicited opinions on the “Management Measures for Wind Farm Renovation, Upgrading and Retirement” across the industry at the end of 2021, encouraging wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years to carry out renovation, upgrading and retirement, and clarifying the subsidy plan for renovation and upgrading projects.
The support of policies lays the foundation for the high-quality development of the wind power aftermarket. According to the “China Aftermarket Development Report 2022”, the installed capacity of units with a capacity of more than 15 years in 2021 is about 2.6 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of units with a capacity of 15-20 years is 2.197 million kilowatts, accounting for 84.5%.
With the increasing capacity of wind turbines in recent years, it is expected that 1.0-2.0 MW of in-service units will become the first batch of “retrofitted” units. According to CWEA data, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of 2.0 MW and below accounted for approximately 30%. Most of them are concentrated in the Three North regions, and as the birthplace of China’s wind power industry, the Three North regions still have a considerable share of foreign brand wind turbines such as Vestas and Siemens Gamesa. These wind turbine equipment will be the key service targets for technological upgrading and replacing small with large.
According to the 2022 China Post Market Development Report, it is expected that the post market capacity of wind power in China will exceed 65 billion yuan by 2025. Considering a design lifespan of 20 years for wind farms, assuming that some wind turbines that have been in operation for more than 15 years require renovation, and those that have not been renovated for 20 years begin to retire, it is estimated that the cumulative capacity of wind turbines in China with renovation and retirement needs will exceed 60 million kilowatts from 2021 to 2030.
The post market service represented by technological upgrading and replacing small with large is about to explode.
Drone overlooking Sany SAC18000T wind power lifting operation
The wind power aftermarket faces multiple challenges
From 2020 to 2021, China’s wind power installed capacity experienced a huge leap, with grid connected installed capacity climbing nearly 120 gigawatts in two years. This also represents that by the end of the 14th Five Year Plan period, a large number of wind farms will have centralized quality assurance, and the supply of operation and maintenance personnel and wind farm operation management will face pressure and challenges.
On the other hand, although Ningxia has implemented a series of corresponding measures for wind farm technological transformation and upgrading, as well as policy details such as simplifying the approval procedures for wind farm land use that replaces small ones with large ones. However, from the perspective of top-level design, the National Energy Administration’s “Management Measures for Wind Farm Transformation, Upgrading, and Retirement” have not yet been officially released, and the management of wind farm transformation, upgrading, and retirement still lacks top-level design and policy basis.
Thirdly, offshore wind power operation and maintenance remains one of the challenges in the wind power aftermarket. 2022 is a key point for the operation and maintenance of offshore wind power in China. While a large number of new offshore wind turbines have entered the operation and maintenance period, the number of offshore wind turbines installed for five years has increased significantly compared to previous years. Moreover, in 2021, China’s offshore wind power installed nearly 17 gigawatts, and the early stage of the “15th Five Year Plan” will also become a period of centralized quality assurance for offshore wind power.
At present, there are many shortcomings in the operation and maintenance of offshore wind power in China, such as high operation and maintenance costs, uneven professional levels of personnel, and insufficient equipment for operation and maintenance ships. Industry experts have stated that with the deep and large-scale development of offshore wind power, there will be greater demand for operation and maintenance ships, high-speed operation and maintenance ships, and operation and maintenance mother ships. It is expected that the demand for high-speed offshore wind power operation and maintenance ships will exceed 500 by 2035, and the demand for operation and maintenance mother ships will reach 50-70.
Finally, the retirement and recycling of wind power equipment is also a key focus that cannot be avoided in the high-quality development of wind power as a whole. According to data, the scale of solid waste generated from retired blades is expected to approach 5800 tons by 2025, and will further increase to 74000 tons by 2028. Exploring technologies and business models for the recycling and utilization of wind power equipment will be a powerful guarantee for wind power to successfully exit the “last mile” of green development.
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